This weekend, we have a 12-fight card with two title struggles in Toronto, Canada. We are back to using PPV sized contests on DraftKings this week and there are a few strong GPPs to chase this week. The main GPP is a $10 entrance using $25,000 to 1st place. These are always my favorite contests to pursue so I’ll be taking some shots in that. Aside from that, I will adhere to my 3-entry maximum & solitary entry GPPs. I’ll also be picking up H2Hs through the week and I will find a fantastic amount of play in games. With that said, here are a few plays I enjoy this week in Addition to my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of this week — Joanna Jedrzejczyk ($6,800)
JJ might be the simplest money game punt of all time at $6.8k. The line for Fight Goes To Conclusion is now -195 and if we’re getting 5-rounds from JJ using all the striking volume she puts out then we have a solid flooring there and it doesn’t matter if she wins or loses. At that price tag she lets you pay up for a few heavy favorites and when we can get 4 other areas to win using a ~40-point reduction from JJ within our lineup then we will be sitting quite pretty in our money games this weekend.
GPP play of this week — Thiago Santos ($8,800)
Fight Does Not Go To Decision is presently lined at -495 for this battle. The most likely outcome is that someone in this struggle gets hauled out in 15-minutes. With that knockout likely comes in least one 10-point dip down. If this may be from the 1st round, then you’re already at 100-points even if it is merely the 1st punch/kick of the night. At $8.8k that is more than enough to give you a chance at 1st place at a GPP. Thiago is the favorite in this fight and Manuwa is 38-years old today, so that he can’t have much time at the match left. I think we role with the favorite here and toss him into our GPP lineups and await the fireworks.
Underdog play of the week — Matthew Lopez ($7,300)
Matthew Lopez is my underdog of this week due to his wrestling/grappling potential. In addition, I believe he’s a live underdog here. Lopez lost his last 2 fights by knockout, so that is really what I’d be worried about most with him Brad Katona is probably the better striker of the two but he’s never knocked anybody out, so I believe we have a good flooring here at $7.3k even though this fight does stay standing because I do not watch Katona knocking Lopez out. I think Lopez is most likely the better wrestler of both though and I think he lands several takedowns in this battle and may win a decision with a wrestling-heavy game program. Lopez lands 3.13 takedowns per 15-minutes at a 57 percent precision, and when he is getting pieced up on the toes I’m sure he will be going for much more than this. At $7.3k I believe Lopez makes for a good play in all formats and that I believe he gets a split decision win here as the street underdog.
Fade of this week — Katlyn Chookagian ($8,700)
I am fading a couple of fighters this week personally, but the individual I never considered using was Katlyn Chookagian. It is not that I don’t think she could win, because she for certain can, and I believe she does. However, I do not see her paying off an $8.7k DK salary with a win. I believe we would need a complete from her in this fight to get 10x that wages and I think that is quite unlikely to take place. Or, she will need FightMetric to count all her screams as important strikes. The maximum Chookagian has ever scored in a UFC fight up to now in her profession is 83 DK points which was contrary to Irene Aldana who places a much greater rate than Jessica Eye does. Even if she could get 83-points here then still wouldn’t be enough here to place her in the winning lineup at her 8.7k price tag. I think if you’re making 20 or less lineups this Saturday you may safely fade Chookagian and if she gets a win it should not hurt much.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my full DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all of my pick forecasts, you’ll find that for just $7.99 on this link below:
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